Tag Archives: Tropical Storm

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

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Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Desert Southwest from Southern California to New Mexico, especially during the evening hours. Record and near record temperatures are expected along the entire West Coast. Inland areas will have temperatures from the 90s to as high as 110 degrees in the inland valleys.  Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for Southern California and the Desert Southwest through this evening. Red Flag Warnings will remain in effect throughout the day in Washington, Oregon and Idaho.

Midwest: 
A cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to Texas continues to move across the region. There is limited moisture associated with this front, so only isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast as the front crosses the Ohio Valley. Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler than experienced in recent weeks. Highs will range from the 60s to the lower 80s.

South: 
The cold front extending from the Midwest will produce showers and thunderstorms across Texas. The threat will be limited to gusty winds and heavy precipitation. The front across the southeast will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Big Bend area of Florida to North Carolina.

Northeast: 
A low-pressure system off the New England Coast will continue to produce precipitation from the Mid-Atlantic to New England.  (NOAA’s National Weather Service, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)         

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

California – Post Fire – near Lebec, Kern County 
A FMAG was approved at 8:00 p.m. EDT, Aug 24, 2010 for the Post Fire located near Fraizer Park, Kern County, California.  Approximately, 1,500 acres consumed and 0% contained.  About 400 residents evacuated from Fraizer Park (Population: 2,800) and 25 structures are threatened. (HQ FEMA)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico:
Hurricane Danielle 
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Danielle was located about 795 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands (1,000 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico). Danielle is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. The maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph, with higher gusts. Danielle is a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Area 1
A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands is accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and showers. Although there has been little change in the organization of the associated shower activity over the past few hours, environmental conditions remain conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days. There is a high chance (90 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.

Area 2
A surface trough over the central Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized cloudiness and a few thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it drifts westward or west-southwestward. There is a low chance (10 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Frank 
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located about 200 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Friday. On this track, Frank will continue to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible and Frank could be a hurricane later today.

Central Pacific: 
No tropical cyclone activity is expected through Thursday evening.

Western Pacific:
No activity.(NOAA, NWS, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, August 24, 2010: 
Initial attack activity: light (158 new fires), new large fires: 4, large fires contained:  6
Uncontained large fires: 18, U.S. States affected: CA, OR, WA, ID, MT, NV, CO &WY (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Fema

Monday, August 23, 2010

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Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast 
Rain continues to fall over much of the region today as an upper trough remains in place.  Cooler temperatures and locally heavy rainfall are expected across much of New York and New England during the next couple of days.  As low pressure develops and strengthens off the coast, gusty winds are also possible for areas along and near the New England Coast.
South
Showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds today along and south of a cold front sliding through the eastern Carolinas, southern Georgia, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi.  The cold front is bringing slightly lower humidity to northern parts of the south.
Heat Advisories continue today across portions of southern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, southwestern Arkansas and northern Louisiana; Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for portions of southern Louisiana through this evening.
Midwest 
A cold front moving across the Northern Plains will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon; wind gusts of 40 mph are possible.  Flood Warnings continue along portions of the Mississippi River, though improved weather conditions have allowed for some recession.
West 
An upper trough and surface cold front will help to enhance the showers and thunderstorms today across much of the West; locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail are possible, particularly in the Southwest.  (NOAA’s National Weather Service, the Hydro meteorological Prediction Center and media sources)      

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.  (HQ FEMA)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Danielle 
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was located about 850 mi west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.  Danielle is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph; and this general motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected to continue through Tuesday.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast and Danielle is likely to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Frank 
At 2:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located about 105 mi south-southwest of Puerto Escondido Mexico.  Frank is moving toward the west near 8 mph; a turn toward the west-northwest is expected today and on the forecast track, Frank will be moving parallel to the coast of southern Mexico through Tuesday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Frank is expected to become a hurricane by late tonight.

Central Pacific: 
No tropical cyclone activity is expected through Saturday afternoon (NOAA, NWS, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, August 22, 2010: 
Initial attack activity:  Light (132 new fires)
New large fires:  11
Large fires contained:  0
Uncontained large fires:  25
States Affected: CA, OR, WA, ID, AZ, AK, MT, WY & OK(NIFC)

Oregon
Lower Deschutes Complex Fire (Final)
Located 5 miles north of Maupin, Oregon, the fire is 9,304 acres and 100 percent contained.  All evacuations have been lifted. 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Fema

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

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Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley with a few isolated severe storms possible. High temperatures are expected across the Northern and Central Plains into Thursday.
South
Intense heat continues, but isolated thunderstorms could bring brief relief to portions of Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and North Carolina. Heavy rains are forecast across portions of the Florida Peninsula.
Northeast 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring strong winds and hail to portions of New England today. Showers and thunderstorms will develop southward into the Mid-Atlantic region as cooler air enters into the region but severe weather is not likely. Slightly cooler, drier air will bring welcome relief to northern New York and northern New England, but high temperatures and humidity are expected to continue throughout the rest of the region.
West 
Isolated, scattered storms are expected from eastern Washington and Oregon to western Montana. Widespread severe weather is not expected with these storms, although a few could produce locally strong winds. Fire danger will remain high through portions of the Great Basin and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible across the higher terrain of Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, and Colorado through Thursday.
(NOAA and media sources)

Excessive Heat – Forecast and Hazards

NOAA’s National Weather Service Forecast Hazards Assessment indicates that excessive heat conditions will continue in the southern United States during the next three to five days. Heat indices of 105-110 degrees will persist in more than 10 states. The heat index is a measure of how hot it feels when the relative humidity is factored in with the actual air temperature. According to the NWS, heat is actually the number one weather related killer in the United States; ranking higher than floods, lightning, tornadoes, and hurricanes combined. The hazards from excessive heat may include sunburn, heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke or hyperthermia. Hyperthermia is a condition in which the body absorbs more heat than it can dissipate and is a major threat for children, adults, and pets in enclosed vehicles. With an outside temperature of 80 degrees, temperatures inside a car can rise to 123 degrees in sixty minutes and leaving the windows slightly open does not significantly decrease the heating rate.  For more information regarding the products that the NWS Weather Forecast Offices produce to help prepare and plan for excessive heat, as well as details regarding the hazards and effects, please see the National Weather Service article, “Heat: a Major Killer” on their website:  http://www.weather.gov/om/heat/index.shtml.  
(NOAA)

Mississippi Canyon 252 Update

Well pressure remains stable. Drilling operations are on hold until the passage of Tropical Depression 5. 
On August 10, NOAA reopened 5,144 square miles to finfish harvest only. The area closed to all fishing covers 52,395 square miles or approximately 22% of the Gulf of Mexico exclusive economic zone.
(NIC Daily SitRep Update)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity. (HQ FEMA)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico: 
Tropical Depression #5 is located approximately 290 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River moving toward the northwest at 10 mph. On the forecast track, the center of the system will approach the north central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday morning. Slow strengthening is expected and the depression is forecast to become a Tropical Storm later today. Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Destin, Florida to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and New Orleans.
Another well-defined low pressure area is located about 750 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and is marginally conducive for development. There is a high chance, near 70 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Finally, there is also a tropical wave located about 625 miles east of the Southern Windward Islands but any development with this system should be slow to occur. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
The remnant low Estelle is located approximately 450 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico moving slowly east-southeastward. Redevelopment of this low is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. Another low pressure area is located about 330 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico but as with the other system, development is not likely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. A third area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec moving slowly westward to west-northwest. Some slow development is possible and there is a low chance, near 20 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central and Western Pacific: 
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 48 hours. 
 (NOAA, JTWC) 

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

On August 10, 2010, the President signed major disaster declaration FEMA-1932-DR to provide assistance to Kansas for damages resulting from severe storms, flooding and tornadoes from June 7 to July 21, 2010. The declaration approves Public Assistance for 34 counties will all counties eligible to apply for the Hazard Mitigation Grants Program. The Federal Coordinating Officer for this disaster is Michael R. Scott.
(HQ FEMA)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On August 10, 2010, the President signed major disaster declaration FEMA-1932-DR to provide assistance to Kansas for damages resulting from severe storms, flooding and tornadoes from June 7 to July 21, 2010. The declaration approves Public Assistance for 34 counties will all counties eligible to apply for the Hazard Mitigation Grants Program. The Federal Coordinating Officer for this disaster is Michael R. Scott.
(HQ FEMA)

Friday, August 6, 2010

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Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West: 
Monsoonal moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Four Corners region during the day. In the Pacific Northwest, widespread showers and thunderstorm activity will move through portions of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana. Some storms in northern Idaho and Montana may become severe with strong winds and large hail possible. Increased winds combined with low relative humidity will result in heightened fire weather conditions in Nevada, Idaho and Oregon.
Midwest:
Most of the region will be dry today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Northern Plains by Saturday. In the Ohio Valley, temperatures will remain just below 90 degrees. Across northern portions of Michigan and Minnesota temperatures will be in the 70s.
South:
Temperatures and humidity will remain high across the South. In Texas, the highs are expected to exceed 100 degrees. For the rest of the region, temperatures will be in the low to middle 90s. Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible from Texas to the coastal Carolinas and in the Florida Peninsula. Some storms may become severe in east-central Georgia and central South Carolina.
Northeast:
A cold front moving across the region will bring cooler temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains through Sunday. Afternoon showers are possible near the eastern Great Lakes today. (NOAA and media sources)

Moderate Solar Weather Storm

A moderate space weather storm that began on August 3 continues today with no significant impacts reported. Auroras, sometimes known as the Northern Lights, have been visible this week in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Although harmless to life on Earth, auroras can cause power disruptions in satellite communications as well as radio and TV broadcasts. 
(NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center)

Mississippi Canyon 252 Update

FEMA is providing personnel and equipment support. Static Kill operations and cement pumping operations are complete and the oil flow remains secured. The well will be evaluated for 24 hours. Approximately 649 miles of coastline is impacted and approximately 57,539 miles or 24 percent of the Gulf of Mexico federal waters remain closed to fishing.  
(NIC Daily SitRep Update)

NOAA Tropical Weather Update Released

 

On August 5, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center released an updated seasonal tropical outlook for the Atlantic Basin that continues to predict an active season. The seasonal average for tropical cyclones in this area is 11 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. The new forecast predicts with a a 70 percent certainty that there will be a total of 20 named storms reaching top winds of 39 mph or higher. Of that storm total, they expect eight to 12 storms will become hurricanes, or cyclones reaching top wind speeds of 74 mph or more. They further predicted that four to six of those storms will develop into major hurricanes or storms with winds of at least 111 mph. The latest update slightly lowers the storm numbers from the earlier May outlook because the early part of the season did not see the activity that was anticipated.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Colin (04)
At 5:00 a.m. Tropical Storm Colin was located 410 miles south-southwest of Bermuda moving north-northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 105 miles east of the center. Little change in strength is expected today but some strengthening is forecast tonight and tomorrow. In addition to Colin, a westward-moving tropical wave is located near the east coast of Nicaragua. Development is not expected as the system moves over Central America during the next day or two. There is a low chance, near zero percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. A third low pressure system is also located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are gradually expected to become more conducive for development during the next few days as the disturbance moves northwestward at around 10 mph. There is a low chance, near 20 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Seven-E is located approximately 130 miles SSW Lazaro Cardenas,  Mexico and 205 miles SSE of  Manzanillo, Mexico. The storm is moving west northwest near 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The storm is expected to continue on this track during next day or two and is forecast to become a tropical storm Friday. One to three inches of rain are possible along the coast of southwest Mexico.
Central Pacific: 
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.
(NOAA, JTWC)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Rooster Rock Fire – Deschutes National Forest, Oregon 
The Rooster Rock Fire near Sisters, Ore. has burned approximately 6,000 acres but is now 40 percent contained. Major highways are open and no evacuations are in effect. The cause of the fire is under investigation.
National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, August 5, 2010: 
Initial attack activity: light (171 new fires), new large fires: 4; large fires contained: 2; uncontained large fires: 8, U.S. States affected: WA, OR, CA, NV, ID, MT, WY, CO, &AK(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment #3 to FEMA-1925-DR-KY effective August 5, 2010 adds two counties for Individual Assistance and three counties for Public Assistance.
(HQ FEMA)